Sizing your second order

Your second order is the first one you can size from your own numbers. After four to six weeks on the shelf you have real numbers for each product, and those numbers are enough to size a reorder without overbuying. Work through the five steps below one product at a time, in units. Leave dollars out of it until the end.

Step 1: Count what actually sold

Pull units sold per product since the case landed. Count sales only. Testers, staff use and damaged units go on a separate line. If a product sold out partway through the period, note the date. A product that sold out in week two had more demand than your count shows.

Step 2: Turn it into a weekly rate

Divide units sold by the number of weeks the product was actually in stock. That is your weekly rate. Round down if one large sale skewed the count, such as a client buying three of the same item for gifts. Those sales are welcome, and you still should not plan on them.

Step 3: Decide your days of cover

Days of cover is how long the stock on hand will last at your current rate. A simple rule of thumb for a small shop is to aim for six to eight weeks of cover after the new case arrives. Add the time between placing an order and having it on the shelf, based on your own past orders. Then add a small buffer for the product you would least like to run out of, usually your top seller or the one your staff recommend after services.

Step 4: Adjust for the season ahead

Look at the calendar in front of the order. From late October through December, gift-friendly sizes and richer moisturizers tend to move faster as the weather turns dry and shoppers buy for others. Consider raising the weekly rate for creams, eye care and lower-priced items that work as gifts. Early January is often quieter, so a reorder placed in mid-December can stay lean.

Step 5: Round to case packs

The minimum is one full case of a product; products ship in sealed case packs from California, or your carrier can collect. So your target in units becomes a number of cases. Check the case-pack count for each product in the catalog, divide your target by it and round. Round up for a proven seller. Round down, or skip the reorder, for a product that still has stock on hand.

A worked example with round numbers

• You sold 12 units of a moisturizer in the four weeks it was in stock. That is 3 units a week.
• You want 8 weeks of cover: 24 units.
• Your past orders took about 2 weeks to reach the shelf, so add 6 units: 30.
• You have 4 units on hand. 30 minus 4 leaves 26 units needed.
• Holiday is ahead, so you lift the target to about 30.
• The case-pack count here is made up: say 12 units. Then 30 units rounds to 2 or 3 cases, and with a steady rate and holiday ahead, 3 is reasonable.

Replace every number with your own. The method is what carries over.

Checklist before you submit

• Every product has a weekly rate based on weeks in stock.
• Testers and staff use are counted separately.
• Top sellers have a buffer. Slow movers have none.
• Gift-friendly items are adjusted for November and December.
• Each line is rounded to full cases.

Shelf note (for the stockroom wall): "Units sold, divided by weeks in stock, times weeks of cover, minus what's on hand. Then round to the case."

What about slow movers? If a product sold fewer than one unit a week, hold the reorder. Move it to eye level next to a product that sells, give staff one sentence to say about it, and review it again in four weeks.

When your numbers are ready, see case packs in the catalog and build the order line by line.